CATTI三級筆譯第12課譯文(michael原創(chuàng))

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Look inside to know when to sell 深入洞察 擇機出貨 By Jerry Knight From T About 4 pages 1 324 words The Washington Post September 22nd 2003 How can you tell when the stock market may be getting too hot 如何才能判斷出股市是否變得過熱 Two of the best clues are when insiders decide it s time to cash in millions of shares and speculative penny stocks go through the roof 有兩個明顯的跡象 一個是內幕交易者決定拋售數(shù)百萬股票的時候 一個是低 價股票大漲特漲 股價暴棚 的時候 Washington investors last week saw both signs of a raging bull market Which as anyone who can remember as far back as the last millennium knows is not necessarily good 上周 華盛頓的投資者們在一路飆升的牛市中目睹了這兩種跡象 那些對上一 個牛市有記憶的人都會認識到 這種漲勢未必是好事 The most compelling evidence that some stock buyers have already forgotten about the bad old days is the astonishing spike in the shares of Xybernaut Corp a Fairfax company whose wearable computers have long enthralled amateur investors 可是 有些股民已經忘記了那段慘痛的過去 Xybernaut 公司的股價正直線上 升 到了讓人咋舌的程度 就是最好的證明 位于菲爾法克斯的 Xybernaut 公司推出了 可穿戴式電腦 一直誘惑著那些業(yè)余投資者們 Since the beginning of September Xybernaut has announced two new orders totaling 2 1 million and the market value of its stock has increased by 200 million nearly tripling from 74 cents a share to 2 17 九月初以來 Xybernaut 公司宣稱已經簽下兩份總價值 210 萬美元的新定單 同時 其股票市值增加了 2 億美元 從每股 74 美分到 2 17 美元 幾乎上漲 了兩倍 Now 2 million is a lot of new business for a company that generates 10 million a year in revenue but how that makes Xybernaut worth three times what it was in August is a calculation only the people buying the shares can make 誠然 200 萬美元能給一個年收入 1000 萬的公司帶來許多新的商機 但是 怎么會使 Xybernaut 的股價比八月份上漲了兩倍 只有買進這支股票的人才 能算清這筆帳 Logical valuation has never been an issue for folks who gamble on Xybernaut a stock far too volatile to be an investment Since the company went public in 1996 the stock has traded as high as 23 75 a share and as low as 21 cents On Thursday it was the most active issue on the Nasdaq Stock Market trading 83 million shares 16 million more than Microsoft Xybernaut 的股價極不穩(wěn)定 所以不能視作投資品 但是適合那些投機人士 對他們來說 理論上的計算已經不是關鍵問題了 自從 1996 年公司股票上市 以來 其股價曾達到過每股 23 75 美元的高峰 也一度跌到 21 美分的低谷 本周四 它成為納斯達克股票市場最為活躍的一支股票 成交量 8300 萬股 比微軟多了 1600 萬股 Spikes like the recent one have occurred several times before each followed by a crash when the smart speculators bailed out and left somebody else holding the bag 以前 曾經多次出現(xiàn)過與近來情況類似的股價暴漲 而每次暴漲之后緊跟著一 次大跌 隨之而來的是 精明的投機者獲利出逃 其余的人被套牢 What drives Xybernaut stock is a steady stream of press releases and a hyperactive hyperbolic following on Internet message boards Reading the comments posted in the course of just 15 minutes of Xybernaut chat on Yahoo provides an update in state of the art profanity and absolute proof that some people never learned the lesson of the Incredible Exploding Tech Bubble or the Perils of Penny Stocks 推動 Xybernaut 股票上揚的動力來自于一連串的新聞報道以及互聯(lián)網留言板 上瘋狂 熱烈的討論 Xybernaut 接受了雅虎專訪 看一看在僅僅 15 分鐘訪 談期間大家發(fā)表的評論吧 它會向你展示什么叫忘乎所以到了極點 也充分證 明了有些人還沒有領教過高科技泡沫的教訓 以及低價股票的風險 Reminders of the Roaring 1990s also abound in the willingness of investors to buy stocks from insiders who want to bail out 20 世紀 90 年代股市一路高歌猛進也助長了投資者的樂觀情緒 他們從內部人 士那里買進股票 殊不知那些人正在打算出貨 Last week insiders at Anteon International Corp a Fairfax defense contractor sold 223 million worth of their stock Anteon went public only 18 months ago at 18 a share and climbed to just under 35 a share before plans for the secondary sale were announced 上周 Anteon 國際公司的內部人士出售了總值 2 23 億美元的股票 這家總部 位于費爾法克斯的軍工企業(yè)在 18 個月前上市 當時每股 18 美元 在二次發(fā)行 計劃宣布之前 公司股價一路攀升 逼近 35 美元 The insiders got 33 80 for the 6 6 million shares they sold on Tuesday The stock has slipped every day since then closing Friday at 33 05 本周二 這些內部人士以 33 80 美元的價格出售了 660 萬股股票 二次發(fā)行 33 8 660 萬 2 23 億 接著 股價一路下滑 本周五以 33 05 美元報 收 The offering includes the standard green shoe option that allows the underwriters to sell 15 percent more stock if there are enough buyers Assuming that happens as it nearly always does the insiders would pocket another 33 million 本次股票發(fā)行包含了標準的 綠鞋 期權 如果有足夠多的買家跟進的話 承 銷商可以賣出 15 的超額配售股份 發(fā)行后股價下跌時使用 最大限度規(guī)避風 險 倘若情況如此 實際上幾乎總是如此 這些內部人士會把另外 3300 萬美元收入囊中 33 05 660 萬 15 3300 萬 A few days earlier insiders at LCC International Inc announced plans to sell 5 million of their shares in the McLean company which helps design and build wireless communications systems If the offering goes out at about the share price of 4 97 where the stock was trading Friday they should collect close to 25 million more if the optional shares are sold 幾天以前 LCC 國際公司的內部人士宣布 公司計劃出售其在 McLean 公司 一家協(xié)助規(guī)劃和建設無線通信系統(tǒng)的公司 的 500 萬股股票 如果本次出售 的股票在 4 97 美元左右的價位成交 那是這支股票在周五的成交價 那么 他們將獲利近 2500 萬美元 如果賣掉 可選股票 獲利將會更多 LCC stock hit 45 a share just before the tech bubble burst in March 2000 but sank as low as 1 25 It was back up to 5 to 6 a share before the announcement of the secondary offering The stock slipped back after that but it has stabilized around 5 giving a pretty good indication of what the 5 million shares might bring 2000 年 3 月份 LCC 的股票曾達到每股 45 美元 但隨著高科技泡沫的破滅 其股價跌落到 1 25 美元 在二次發(fā)行公布之前 又重新回到每股 5 到 6 美元 之間 隨后 該股票有所回調 但是穩(wěn)定在 5 美元左右 這使得 500 萬股股票 的收益預期變得相當想理 Why would anybody sell a stock that was once worth 45 a share for 5 為什么大家要以 5 美元的價格拋售這樣一支曾經價值 45 美元的股票 Probably because 45 a share was a bubble price that even the most self congratulatory insiders know was nonsensical From their point of view the benchmark is not how much less the stock is worth than it was at the top but how much more it is worth than it was at the bottom From that perspective 5 beats the heck out of a buck and change 可能是因為 45 美元的股價只是一個泡沫價格 甚至連最樂觀的內部人士都知 道 這個價格是毫無意義的 在他們看來 最重要的不是股價比高點時低多少 而是股價比低谷時高多少 依此觀點 5 美元價值可能比百萬美元的價值更大 Neither company could be reached for comment on the stock sales Friday The Securities and Exchange Commission s quiet period regulations strictly limit comments by companies before and after stock sales 在有關本周五股票交易情況的評論中 不能觸及到這兩家公司的名字 證券交 易委員會規(guī)定了 緘默期 在股票發(fā)行前后對公司發(fā)表的評論進行嚴格限制 The LCC insiders who are selling are some of the best known names in Washington Carlyle Group the city s biggest private investment firm and Telecom Ventures LLC the investment firm founded by Rajendra and Neera Singh 那些正在拋售 LCC 股票的內幕交易者是幾個在華盛頓大名鼎鼎的公司 華盛 頓最大的私人投資公司卡萊爾集團 還有由雷杰德拉和尼拉 塞恩創(chuàng)立的投資公 司 Telecom Ventures LLC In contrast the principal person cashing in at Anteon is a virtual unknown in the Washington business community Frederick J Iseman a New York venture capitalist for whom Anteon is his first really big score 相比之下 拋售 Anteon 股票的關鍵人物在華盛頓工商界卻名不見經傳 他叫 弗雷德里克 J 伊塞曼 是一位風險投資家 Anteon 是他從沒見過的暴利股票 Iseman sold about 175 million worth of Anteon stock and will collect another 16 5 million if green shoe is exercised 伊塞曼已經售出總值約 1 75 億美元的 Anteon 股票 而且 如果執(zhí)行了 綠 鞋 他將另外獲得 1650 萬美元 The cash he is pocketing is pretty much pure profit because Iseman s original investments in the shares he sold for 33 80 were made at 40 cents to 88 cents a share 伊塞曼賺到的這筆錢可以說是凈利潤 因為他以每股 33 80 美元出售的這批股 票其原始成本僅在每股 40 到 88 美分之間 Iseman heads a firm called Caxton Iseman Capital which also controls a chain of all you can eat cafeterias called Buffets Inc and Vitality Beverages Inc which bottles private label orange juice and other beverages 伊塞曼掌控著一家名叫 卡克斯頓 伊塞曼資金 的公司 這家公司還控制著 一個名叫 巴非特 的自助餐連鎖企業(yè)以及一家 活力 飲料公司 后者專門 罐裝代加工澄汁和其它飲料 In 1996 Iseman bought a local defense contractor called Ogden Professional Services for 47 5 million Ogden morphed into Anteon and along the way acquired several other firms that do business with the Pentagon 1996 年 伊塞曼以 4750 萬美元的價格買下一家名為 奧格登專業(yè)服務 的 當?shù)剀姽て髽I(yè) 后者演變成今天的 Anteon 依此方式 又獲得其它一些與五 星大樓作生意的公司 These days investors are buying stock in Pentagon contractors the way they were gobbling up high tech companies a few years back And just as happened with high tech entrepreneurs and insiders are cashing in big time 這段時期 投資者正在買進五角大樓承包商的股票 就象幾年前他們追捧高科 技公司股票一樣 與此同時 如同當時高科技股票的境遇 內幕交易者目前正 在大肆拋售